区域能源经济协同趋势预测模型研究
———以武汉市为例
张琦夫，龙妍，张竣溵，周红玉
（华中科技大学能源与动力工程学院，湖北 武汉 430074）
摘要： 以宏观视角研究区域能源问题，需要思考能源系统与经济系统之间复杂的作用关系。从协同学基本原理出发，
通过理论假设与数学推导，在优化传统时间序列模型的基础上，构建了区域能源-经济协同趋势预测模型。利用该模型
对武汉市进行实证分析，并与指数平滑曲线的预测结果进行对比。结果表明，区域能源-经济协同趋势模型具有更加精
确的预测效果，对区域能源系统与经济系统的协同发展、低碳城市的建设具有更加明确的政策指导意义。
关键词： 协同学；趋势预测；区域能源；区域经济；低碳城市
中图分类号： TK018     文献标识码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2020)04-0002-04
Synergetic Trend Forecasting Model of Regional Energy-economy: A Case Study of Wuhan
ZHANG Qifu, LONG Yan, ZHANG Junyin, ZHOU Hongyu
(School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, China)
Abstract: From a macroperspective on regional energy issues, it needs to think about the complex relationships between the
energy system and the economic system. Starting from the basic principle of synergetics, through theoretical hypothesis and
mathematical derivation, on the basis of optimizing the traditional time series model, the synergetic trend forecasting model of
regional energy-economy was built up. Taking a case study of Wuhan, this paper compared the results between synergetic trend
forecasting model and exponential smoothing model. The results show that the trend model of regional energy-economy coordination
has a more accurate prediction effect, which has a more clear policy guidance significance for the coordinated development of
regional energy system and economic system and the construction of low-carbon cities.

Key words: synergetics; trend forecasting; regional energy; regional economy; low-carbon cities