广东可再生能源电力发展的多政策情景分析
宫大千¹，李建华^2，3，钟式玉^2，3，赵静波^2，3
（1. 广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心，广东 广州 510000；2. 广东省技术经济研究发展中心，广东 广州 510070；
3. 广东省能源研究会，广东 广州 510070）
摘要： 广东省风电、太阳能光伏和生物质发电为主的可再生能源发电装机容量迅速增长。同时，国家可再生能源政
策发生重大调整，政策的主基调从强制购买制度向强制配额制度和招标采购制度转变。通过总结广东可再生能源发展现
状和国家可再生能源政策的调整，设置广东省2025年和2035年可再生能源电力总量消纳责任权重和非水电可再生能源
电力消纳责任权重低、中、高目标3 种不同的政策情景，并针对不同的政策情景提出广东省可再生能源发展的平缓方案、
基本方案、激进方案。
关键词： 可再生能源；风电；光伏；政策情景；广东
中图分类号： F205     文献标志码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2020)09-0050-03
Multi-police Scenario Analysis of Renewable Energy Power Development of Guangdong Province
GONG Daqian¹, LI Jianhua^2,3, ZHONG Shiyu^2,3, ZHAO Jingbo^2,3
(1. Grid Planning & Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong, China;
2. Guangdong Techno-economy Research and Development Center, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China; 3. Guangdong
Energy Research Society, Guangzhou 510070, Guangdong, China)
Abstract: The installed capacity of renewable energy power generation based on wind power, solar photovoltaic and biomass
power generation is growing rapidly in Guangdong Province. At the same time, the national renewable energy policy has undergone
a major adjustment, and the main tone of the policy has changed from the compulsory purchase system to the compulsory
quota system and bidding procurement system. By summarizing the current situation of renewable energy development in Guangdong
Province and the adjustment of national renewable energy policy, this paper set three different policy scenarios of the low,
medium and high target of Guangdong Province's total consumption responsibility weight of renewable energy and non-hydropower
renewable energy in 2025 and 2035, and put forward the gentle plan, basic plan and radical plan of renewable energy
development in Guangdong Province according to the different policy scenarios.

Key words: renewable energy; wind power; photovoltaic; policy scenarios; Guangdong