湖北省光伏发电项目经济性预测研究
冯赫¹，龙妍^1，2，周铭^2，3
（1. 华中科技大学中欧清洁与可再生能源学院，湖北 武汉 430074；2. 华中科技大学能源与动力工程学院，湖北 武汉 430074；
3. 武汉新能源研究院有限公司，湖北 武汉 430075）
摘要： 基于平准化度电成本模型，结合湖北省实例样本数据，构建2016—2019 年湖北省光伏发电的成本结构框架，
分析影响建设及度电成本的主要因素。设置低等、中等与高等三种情景模式与作用因子，研究不同情形下湖北省光伏度
电成本的未来发展趋势，讨论不同影响因子对度电成本下降的驱动效果。结果发现：若无外力干预，湖北省光伏度电成
本下降缓慢，预计将于“十四五”末期甚至“十五五”初期方能达到平价上网要求；核心部件成本下降及能源利用效率
提升将大幅促进度电成本的降低；政策因素可显著减少隐性成本从而推动光伏度电成本加速下降。
关键词： 光伏发电；平准化度电成本；情景分析
中图分类号： TK519     文献标识码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2021)04-0010-04
Research on Economic Forecast of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project in Hubei Province
FENG He1, LONG Yan1,2, ZHOU Ming2,3
(1. China-EU Institute for Clean and Renewable Energy, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074,
Hubei, China; 2. School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074,
Hubei, China; 3. Institute of New Energy of Wuhan Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430075, Hubei, China)
Abstract: Based on the leveled generation cost model, combined with the sample data of Hubei Province, the cost framework of
photovoltaic power generation in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2019 was constructed to analyze the effects of main factors
influencing the construction and LCOE. Then, low, medium and high scenario models were set up to study the future LCOE under
various scenarios and discuss the driving effect of different impact factors. Results show that the LCOE will decline very slowly
without external intervention , and it is expected to meet the requirements for parity at the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan or even
the early 15th Five-Year Plan; both of the cost reduction and energy efficiency improvement of core components will greatly
reduce the LCOE; moreover, policy factors can significantly reduce the hidden costs and thus accelerate the decline of the LCOE
of photovoltaic power generation.

Key words: photovoltaic power generation; LCOE; scenario analysis