昆仑山高寒山区阿克苏库勒湖面积显著变化简析
李娟
（新疆和田水文勘测局，新疆 和田 848000）
摘要： 围绕《关于昆仑山阿克苏库勒湖可能溃决并在南疆部分地区造成重大生命财产灾害的紧急预警》开展分析，
以阿克苏库勒湖（原名“塔什库勒湖”） 附近水文观测河流的径流量、降水量变化趋势，间接说明位于昆仑山高寒山区的
阿克苏库勒湖的入湖径流量是增加的，应在该湖泊及其附近建设监测站点，及时为下游居民点、水利工程、铁路和公路
安全提供预警信息。
关键词： 湖泊面积；显著变化；径流量；趋势检验；突变检验
中图分类号： P343.3     文献标识码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2021)06-0087-03
Brief Analysis of Remarkable Changes of Aksu Kule Lake Areas in Cold Highland Areas of
Kunlun Mountains
LI Juan
(Hotan Hydrological Survey Bureau of Xinjiang, Hotan 848000, Xinjiang, China)
Abstract: This paper focused on the analysis around "Emergency Warning on the Possible Outburst of Aksu Kule Lake in
Kunlun Mountains and Causing Major Life and Property Disasters in Some Areas of Southern Xinjiang". Based on the variation
trend of runoff and precipitation of hydrometry rivers near Aksu Kule Lake(formerly known as "Tashkule Lake"), it indirectly indicated
that the runoff of Aksu Kule Lake in the cold highland areas of Kunlun Mountains was increasing, so monitoring stations
should be built in the lake and its vicinity to provide early warning information for the safety of downstream residential areas,
water conservancy projects, railways and highways.

Key words: lake areas; remarkable changes; runoff; trend test; mutation test