水资源承载力动态变化及驱动因素探究
阿丽亚·阿不都克里木
（新疆维吾尔自治区水文局水文实验站，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830036）
摘要： 主要以中国吐鲁番市为例进行研究，分析了当下水资源承载力发生的动态变化及导致出现变化的驱动因素。
以水资源承载力的复合系统为基础，利用模糊综合评判法与熵值法对水资源承载力水平进行分析，最后运用单因素敏感
性分析法分析驱动发生变化的因素。研究的主要目的是为后续水资源可持续利用工作提供参考。
关键词： 水资源承载力；驱动因素；动态变化；评价方法
中图分类号： X37；TV213     文献标识码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2021)07-0111-02
Dynamic Change of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Its Driving Factors
Aliya Abudukelimu
(Hydrological Experimental Station, Hydrological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830036, Xinjiang, China)
Abstract: This paper analyzed the dynamic change of water resources carrying capacity and the driving factors of the change by
taking Turpan City in China as the main research area. Based on the complex system of water resources carrying capacity, the
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and entropy method were used to analyze the level of water resources carrying capacity.
Finally, the single factor sensitivity analysis method was used to analyze the driving factors of the change. The main purpose of the
study is to provide reference for the future sustainable utilization of water resources.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity; driving factors; dynamic change; evaluation method