山西省工业碳排放演变特征及影响因素分析
裴晓雯
（同济大学测绘与地理信息学院，上海 200092）
摘要： 根据IPCC 碳排放计算公式对2010—2018 年山西省工业碳排放进行测算，分析工业碳排放总量变化趋势及能
源消费结构特征。在此基础上，运用LMDI 法对山西省工业碳排放的影响因素进行定量分析。结果表明：山西省碳排放
总量仍处于上升趋势，碳排放以煤炭类能源为主体，能源消费结构有待进一步优化；人口规模、经济发展水平、能源强
度对碳排放表现为正向效应，产业结构和能源结构对碳排放表现为负向效应。最后根据分析结果，提出相应的对策建
议，为山西省及其他区域的低碳转型发展提供一定的借鉴和参考。
关键词： 山西省；工业碳排放；LMDI 分解模型
中图分类号： F426；X32     文献标识码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2021)10-0047-03
Analysis on Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emissions in
Shanxi Province
PEI Xiaowen
(College of Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China)
Abstract: According to the IPCC carbon emissions calculation formula, this paper calculated the industrial carbon emissions of
Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2018, and analyzed the overall change trend of the total industrial carbon emissions and the
characteristics of energy consumption structure. On this basis, it used LMDI method to quantitatively analyze the influencing
factors of industrial carbon emissions in Shanxi Province. The results show that the total carbon emission of Shanxi Province is
still on the rise, the carbon emission is dominated by coal energy, and the energy consumption structure needs to be further
optimized; population size, economic development level and energy intensity have positive effects on carbon emissions, while
industrial structure and energy structure have negative effects on carbon emissions. Finally, according to the analysis results, it put
forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, which provides a certain reference for the low-carbon transforma-tion
and development of Shanxi Province and other regions.

Key words: Shanxi Province; industrial carbon emission; LMDI decomposition model