榆林市重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力预警评估
刘俊梅，马永刚
（榆林学院数学与统计学院，陕西 榆林 719000）
摘要： 区域经济的发展不能超越环境所能承受的最大容量，因此各级环保部门应在科学评估区域大气环境承载力的
基础上制订大气环境政策。榆林市作为一个典型的能源型城市，建立重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力预警模型，不仅可以
动态分析大气环境承载力，还有助于识别大气环境承载力变化趋势和大气环境风险问题。根据榆林市国家重点监控企业
自行监测信息平台发布的数据，基于云模型和马尔可夫链建立重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力动态预警模型。研究结果表
明，该模型具有良好的预警能力，榆林市重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力正在逐步提高。从整体来看，目前榆林市重点煤
矿区域不存在严重超载风险。
关键词： 大气环境承载力；云模型；马尔可夫链；重点煤矿区域
中图分类号： X823     文献标识码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2021)10-0088-04
Early Warning Assessment of Atmospheric Environmental Carrying Capacity in Key Coal Mine
Areas in Yulin City
LIU Junmei, MA Yonggang
(School of Mathematics and Statistics, Yulin University, Yulin 719000, Shaanxi, China)
Abstract: The development of regional economy cannot exceed the maximum capacity that the environment can withstand. Therefore,
environmental protection departments at all levels should formulate atmospheric environmental policies on the basis of scientific
assessment of the regional atmospheric environmental carrying capacity. As a typical energy-based city, Yulin has established
an early warning model of atmospheric environmental carrying capacity in key coal mine areas, which can not only dynamically
analyze the atmospheric environmental carrying capacity, but also help to identify changes in atmospheric environmental carrying
capacity and atmospheric environmental risk issues. Based on the data released by the self-monitoring information platform of the
national key monitoring enterprises in Yulin City, this paper established a dynamic early warning model of the atmospheric
environmental carrying capacity of key coal mine areas based on the cloud model and the Markov chain. The research results
show that the model has good early warning capabilities, and the atmospheric environmental carrying capacity of key coal mine
areas in Yulin City is gradually improving. On the whole, there is no serious overload risk in key coal mine areas in Yulin City.

Key words: atmospheric environmental carrying capacity; cloud model; Markov chain; key coal mine areas