城市生活垃圾清运量的灰色预测研究
任丽萍¹，范宇帆²，尤辰光²
（1. 江苏建筑职业技术学院公共基础学院，江苏 徐州 221116；2. 江苏建筑职业技术学院建筑管理学院，江苏 徐州 221116）
摘要： 以江苏省2014—2019年城市生活垃圾清运量的数据为基础，运用灰色系统理论的GM(1，1)模型进行预测，发
现残差平方和较大，故引入了一阶弱化缓冲算子作用后的新GM(1，1)模型进行预测，残差平方和降低了94%，且预测平
均相对误差由1.70%降低到0.41%，预测的精度、绝对关联度、均方差比和小误差概率均为一级，最后给出了近5 年的
城市生活垃圾清运量预测数据，为管理规划部门提供定量依据。
关键词：灰色系统；垃圾清运量；灰色预测；GM(1，1)模型
中图分类号：U491.3     文献标识码：A     文章编号：2095-0802-(2021)12-0056-03
Study on Grey Prediction of Municipal Solid Waste Collection and Transportation Volume
REN Liping¹, FAN Yufan², YOU Chenguang²
(1. School of General Courses, Jiangsu Vocational Institute of Architectural, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China; 2. School of
Construction Management, Jiangsu Vocational Institute of Architectural, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China)
Abstract: Based on the data of municipal solid waste collection and transportation volume of Jiangsu from 2014 to 2019, this
paper used the GM(1,1) model of grey system theory for prediction, found that the sum of residual squares was large, so introduced
a new GM(1,1) model after the action of the first-order weak buffer operator for prediction. The sum of residual squares was reduced
by 94%, the average relative error of prediction was reduced from 1.70% to 0.41%, the prediction accuracy, absolute correlation
degree, mean square error ratio and small error probability were uniform. Finally, it gave the forecast data of municipal solid waste
collection and transportation volume in the next 5 years, providing quantitative basis for management and planning departments.
Key words: grey system; waste collection and transportation volume; grey prediction; GM(1,1) model