可再生能源的外部不经济性研究
周涛^1，3，胡成^2，3，陈娟^2，3
（1. 东南大学能源与环境学院，江苏 南京 210096；2. 华北电力大学核科学与工程学院，北京 102206；
3. 核热工安全与标准化研究团队，北京 102206）
摘要： 明确可再生能源的外部不经济性，可以更好地促进可再生能源的发展。提出可再生能源外部不经济性的概念，
阐明其由生产者的不经济性、消费者的不经济性、环境的不经济性组成。通过建立可再生能源外部不经济性预测指数模
型、线性模型以及关联性模型，计算并分析了外部不经济性指标的变化趋势。计算分析结果表明，可再生能源的市场因
素、政策因素、资金因素、技术因素、设备因素、人为因素都会对可再生能源的不经济性产生影响，各影响因素均可促
使可再生能源外部不经济性指标达到最大限值，造成对可再生能源建设和运行的最大不利效应，其中，市场因素、政策
因素、资金因素对外部不经济性指标的影响相对较大。同时各影响因素之间可能存在相互影响的关联性，这也会对可再
生能源的外部不经济性产生较大影响。
关键词： 可再生能源发展；预测模型；市场因素；资金因素；关联性
中图分类号： F224；F426     文献标识码： A     文章编号： 2095-0802-(2022)01-0007-05
Study on External Diseconomy of Renewable Energy
ZHOU Tao^1,3, HU Cheng^2,3, CHEN Juan^2,3
(1.School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, Jiangsu, China; 2. School of Nuclear Science and
Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 3. Institute of Nuclear Thermal-hydraulic Safety and
Standardization, Beijing 102206, China)
Abstract: Clarifying the external diseconomy of renewable energy can better promote the development of renewable energy. This
paper put forward the concept of external diseconomy of renewable energy, which is composed of diseconomy of producer,
diseconomy of consumer and diseconomy of environment. By establishing the index model, linear model and correlation model of
external diseconomic prediction of renewable energy, this paper calculated and analyzed the change trend of external diseconomic
index. The results of calculation and analysis show that the market factors, policy factors, capital factors, technical factors,
equipment factors and human factors of renewable energy will all have an diseconomic impact on renewable energy, and all the
influencing factors can make the external diseconomic index of renewable energy reach the maximum value and cause the
maximum adverse effect on the construction and operation of renewable energy, among which the market factors, policy factors and
capital factors have a relatively large impact on external diseconomic indicators. At the same time, there may be a correlation
among the influencing factors, which will also much affect the external diseconomy of renewable energy.

Key words: development of renewable energy; prediction model; market factor; capital factor; correlation