基于LMDI 模型的城市碳排放影响因素分析
彭军霞，李新爱，梅玉坤
（广州赛宝认证中心服务有限公司，广东 广州 511370）
摘要： 基于LMDI模型，分别研究能源消费结构、能源强度、经济发展、人口规模四个因素对惠州市能源消费产生碳
排放的贡献量和贡献率。结果表明，经济发展和人口规模是驱动惠州市碳排放增加的最主要因素；能源强度的降低和能
源消费结构的低碳化是抑制碳排放量增加的最主要因素。由于惠州市处于工业化发展时期，工业发展对能源的消费需求
大，影响因素中的驱动因素对碳排放量的贡献率大于抑制因素，在短时期内惠州市的碳排放仍将持续增长。因此，惠州
市需要改变经济发展方式，坚持提高能源利用效率和促进能源消费结构的转变。
关键词： LMDI；能源消费结构；能源强度；碳排放
中图分类号： X24      文献标志码： A      文章编号： 2095-0802-(2023)07-0061-04
Carbon Emission Driving Factors of City Based on LMDI Model
PENG Junxia, LI Xin'ai, MEI Yukun
(CEPREI Certification Body, Guangzhou 511370, Guangdong, China)
Abstract: LMDI model was used to study the contribution and contribution rate of energy consumption structure, energy intensity,
economic development, population scale to carbon emissions of energy consumption in Huizhou respectively. As the results shown
that economic development and population scale are the most important factors of carbon emissions increase in Huizhou; reduction
of energy intensity and low carbonization of energy structure are the main factors to curb carbon emissions increase. It indicates
that Huizhou is in the period of industrialization, the energy consumption demand for industrial development is big, meanwhile,
the contribution rate of the driving factors to carbon emissions is greater than the inhibiting factors, and the carbon emissions of
Huizhou energy consumption will continue to grow in a short period. Therefore, Huizhou needs to change the pattern of economic
development, adhere to improve energy efficiency, and promote the transformation of energy consumption structure.

Key words: LMDI; energy consumption structure; energy intensity; carbon emission